A new study published in the Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs has found that drinking two alcoholic drinks every day could give a person roughly a 4% lifetime risk of dying from an alcohol-related cause. The findings highlight the health risks of regular drinking as more Americans begin to cut back on alcohol.
The research, published in 2026, examined how different levels of alcohol consumption affect the risk of death from conditions such as liver disease, cancer, cardiovascular disease and injuries. Researchers used previous studies on alcohol-related health risks alongside US drinking and death data from 2022 to estimate lifetime risks.
According to the study, drinking around seven drinks per week carries a relatively low estimated lifetime risk of alcohol-related death. However, the risk rises sharply when consumption increases to 14 drinks per week.
For men, moving from one drink a day to two drinks a day increases the estimated lifetime risk from around 0.2% to 3.9%, a roughly 23-fold increase. At 21 drinks per week, the estimated risk rises to 6.9% for men and 8.2% for women.
The findings also challenge the long-held belief that moderate drinking, particularly wine, protects heart health. Earlier studies sometimes showed benefits because they compared drinkers with groups that included people who had stopped drinking due to illness. More recent research has questioned these apparent benefits.
The study’s authors caution that these figures are population-level estimates, not predictions of an individual’s future health. The calculations also have uncertainties, and people may underestimate how much they drink.
Health risks can also depend on drinking patterns. Binge drinking may increase the risk of heart attacks, strokes and certain cancers. Women may face higher risks of liver disease and breast cancer, while younger adults are particularly vulnerable to alcohol-related road accidents and other injuries.
Physicians advise people who do not drink to avoid starting for health benefits. Those who choose to drink are advised to limit consumption and avoid binge drinking.
The key message is clear: the second daily drink may carry significantly greater risks than the first, and cutting back on alcohol may benefit overall health.
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